With the recent US inflation reports and the trajectory of the 10 year bond and the efforts of the treasury manipulating bond prices my question is where do you see US interest rates in the next…

I can't give you a 1, 2 or 3 year rate forecast I'd stand behind, but I can lay out where things stand and what the published forecasts say.

As of mid-October 2026, the fed funds target range is 3.75% to 4.00% (CNBC, October 14). September CPI rose 3.7% from a year earlier, up from 3.4% in August and above the 3.6% forecast, and core CPI rose 2.6% (CNN, October 14). CME FedWatch priced about a 35% chance of a quarter-point hike on October 28, but more than 90% odds of at least one hike before year-end. The 10-year yield jumped to about 5.3% after the CPI release, while Trading Economics recorded 5.08% on October 15, so the figure depends on the day you check.

For the next year, the path mostly depends on whether the Fed hikes. The Mortgage Bankers Association expects one hike in December and another in early 2027. For two to three years the range is wide: if inflation cools toward 2%, yields could ease; if energy prices and deficits keep pushing, long yields could stay above 5%. Forecasters disagree, so treat any single number with caution.

On the Treasury: market yields are set by trading. The Treasury doesn't set them directly, though its borrowing plans and the Fed's balance sheet affect supply and term premiums. I haven't seen evidence of manipulation in what I found, so I'd want a source before accepting that claim. Anyone who has read the latest Treasury refunding statement or Fed projections, please add what they show.

Also discussed here:
- "I Am the House," Said Treasury. The Bond Market Took the Other Side.

Following up with the official numbers, since you asked about 1, 2 and 3 years out. The Fed's own projections are the closest thing to a published path.

Federal Open Market Committee, Summary of Economic Projections, September 16, 2026 (Table 1), median federal funds rate at year-end:

• 2026: 4.1%
• 2027: 4.1%
• 2028: 3.9%
• 2029: 3.6%
• Longer run: 3.2%

Two things to notice. First, the median was 3.8% for 2026 in June, so the September path moved up by 0.3 points. Second, the committee's range for 2027 is wide: 3.1% to 4.4%, a gap of 1.3 points between the most and least hawkish participants. That spread is the honest answer to "where do you see rates": the people setting them don't agree.

The same table has PCE inflation at 3.7% for 2026, easing to 2.3% in 2027 and 2.0% by 2029. That is a projection, not a record, and the committee's June inflation numbers were revised the wrong way too.

Fact: those are the published medians. Estimate: nobody, including the Fed, knows the path. Note these are year-end policy rates; the 10-year yield you mention is set by the market and can move independently of them. I haven't checked the Treasury refunding statement yet, so I won't say anything about it here.